Episode 295 Scott Adams: The Smokey View From My Side
Date: 2018-11-11 | Duration: 28:09
Topics
Note: Recorded Friday, 11/09/2018 Posting delayed due to fire Rosenstein praised Whitaker as a “perfect choice” to replace him How to confirm we’re in a simulation The new “angry Trump”, very entertaining He tore into two white men at a press conference Fake news focuses on 3 black women he also insulted Will President Trump Federally legalize weed? Prediction: Yes Business model of the news industry is making people angry Profits are being driven by the number of angry people Persuasion is only legal because most people aren’t (yet) very good at it and it can’t be scientifically measured
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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.
## Transcript
[0:08]
hey everybody come on in here we're gonna take a look at the view out my window as you may or may not know there are forest fires and none of them are especially close to me but so you see where there's that row of Lights little yellow lights sort of right in the middle that's at the base of a you know a big Ridge the entire bridge is completely obliterated by smoke so in this neighborhood we don't open our windows and we don't go outside so it's we've got an air quality warning so we don't go anywhere focus focus there you go you thought it would be pot work related well what are the odds of that all right hold on put you down
[1:14]
that all right hold on put you down turn you around okay bear with me
so yeah it's dangerous to go outside the fires are so intense and I'm not if as I said I'm not really near any in terms of danger of catching on fire but the I actually don't know how far away I am I think it's probably in the fifty to a hundred mile range something like that it was probably the closest one why what are those air quality readers do they have those there was no blek set to in mid terms my understanding is that the that the youth did not show up to vote
[2:17]
that the youth did not show up to vote do you remember by tweet a very early on Election Day and I noted that it just seemed like there were a lot of old people but not a lot of young people in line and I realize it was also with that time of day when there would be more old people but it just seemed to me that with people with different schedules etc that that there would be a good chance that the young would not there now can I have a q8 quickly if I have to well the odds of him making it all the way to me it would have to burn down a lot of residential it would have to burn down and a half of Pleasanton before it reached me so I guess it's possible but my house was built to to be almost fire resistant well totally fire resistant
[3:18]
resistant well totally fire resistant but it's almost fireproof so there's a I don't think there's anything external on my house that could even catch on fire so it would have to be exposed to a something actually burning for a long time
so I see in the news that the Wall Street Journal is reporting and I know this is a big surprise to a lot of you but apparently President Trump when he was candidate Trump he actually knew that his lawyer was arranging payments to McDougall and to stormy I know that's a big shocker to all of you but it's it's top news on CNN and I think if they're gonna be fair about reporting the story they should put right up at
[4:20]
the story they should put right up at the top what the potential penalty is because I think the potential penalty is something like a traffic fine yeah there's just you're ready to check from the campaign that's not even a personal find I think it's a campaign violation so they should say that at the top it turns out that the President did exactly what everybody assumed he did for all the reasons that you assume people do those things and we're really gonna get it now and when we do there will be heck to pay somebody who's not even him will have to write a check I think that's the whole story right but we'll see if it gets any bigger I saw that rod Rosenstein praised Whitaker as a perfect choice for that job did you see that so Rosenstein that gets passed over for the job of acting AG praises Whitaker who
[5:21]
job of acting AG praises Whitaker who was basically taking control from him for being a perfect choice and just great I'd love to know if rod Rosen Stein has a good sense of humor in private would well wouldn't you love to just be privately talking to rod Rosen see and say you're just you just screwing with us right now right you just screw this I feel like you think yeah I just fought really but what are you gonna do Whitakers his boss at the moment so because he's not stupid he's not insulting his boss for no good reason
alright and is it is it the simulation talking to us that he somebody was saying this I'm on Twitter that what's
[6:22]
saying this I'm on Twitter that what's the name of the woman who's being accused of voting irregularities in Florida her last name is snipe SM IP snipe which is just a perfect name for for a theatrical event but even better than that is that the headline news is that I'm not making this up Trump used pecker to keep a playmate quiet that's just what happened I'm just reporting the news so they're saying that new-agey isn't legit yeah does it seem to you that if you're willing to pay enough for lawyers you can declare that anything is not legit it doesn't feel like that you could just take any random politician out of the government and say yeah uh
[7:23]
out of the government and say yeah uh all right you over there minding your own business and just pluck now and say I'm gonna dangle you in front of 15 of the best lawyers at Washington let's see if they find anything dangle dangle dangle I feel like oh it Snipes with the best I feel like I feel like if you have enough lawyers just everybody's going down there's just no it's no exception
how would you break into the simulation good question it really depends who's running the simulation
so if I told you by my way that we can check if we're a simulation there's a way the check I don't have the final details but here's the the concept one of the ways that you could confirm it sort of the ways that you'd have to do a lot of different experiments to really confirm you know an Einstein theory you know you don't want to go at it from a
[8:23]
know you don't want to go at it from a different different angles make sure they're all consistent if we're a simulation you know in other words if were software creatures who have been designed to think we're real then we live in a world in which the present can change the past because you would not create an artificial world in which the past exists in fullness you would write the past as the president requires it so if you find a box of photographs in the attic and you know will say nobody's ever seen them before or maybe it's just because you've never seen them before and he opened them up now I guess it would have to be if nobody alive had seen them and you find some new evidence of the past because your family photograph you found a fossil or something at that point the past rites just enough to keep the whole script working it wouldn't create the entire the entire thing now somebody's saying
[9:25]
the entire thing now somebody's saying nihilism but not at all because we wouldn't be no different if we were the simulations or if we were real all the same rules would apply we would just be made of different stuff I'm addicted and bored of the news at the same time I'm having exactly that feeling I'm having the feeling of being bored by the news just lately because some of the news is you know after the midterms were exciting but after that it got a little you know exciting for another day and then today it seemed like a half it's just ordinary stories today
I can't tell if I like the new angry Trump who's who's who's calling reporters stupid I know I'm entertained I'm definitely entertained by it I saw a
[10:29]
I'm definitely entertained by it I saw a joy read that say that the president is you know she was raising the fact that the president had insulted three black women recently now unless you're paying attention he also started out by insulting Jim Acosta and then his coworker at the same network so he I think but anyway he started with two adult white man and tore into them and then he just kept going here's here's how the pessimist and the optimist see this story so joy read playing the part of the pessimist in my example says oh the president insults three black women coincidence that's the pessimistic view here's the optimistic view there are three black women who have excellent jobs with access in the White House the
[11:30]
jobs with access in the White House the reason that three black women got insulted recently is that all three of those women are super accomplished they have great great jobs they got they got close enough to the insults or in chief that they got insulted like so many other people including Jim Acosta so it's literally true that you could look at the same situation and say oh my god it's terrible look who he's insulting is this a coincidence maybe it's not a coincidence maybe black women are just killing it lately they cut great jobs there if you're standing next to the President of the United States and asking him a question you've got a good job congratulations you've made something of your of your life you know most of the world would wish they were you so what that's it let's at least at least kids the context that nobody's getting insulted unless they get on the radar
[12:30]
insulted unless they get on the radar and welcome to the radar it's actually it's actually a weirdly positive sign when what the insulting is going when the insulting is well distributed seems to be it's a pretty good sign should I learn hypnosis to learn and persuasion I can only tell you that I think it helped a lot but I also did that first so you know I may have been biased by the fact that I took hypnosis before I learned more levels of persuasion
[13:31]
yeah by the way the joy read can only ask the question and send the tweet because she's killing it she's got a really good job her career is going great so well congratulations to Joy read for or her success
all right I didn't have much else to say so they have any questions while I got a few minutes here
people like welcome to the radar I'm already weapon i hypnotized somebody said
I'm going to take a Dale Carnegie course because of you that will be one of the best things you've ever done you know you might be in that Dale Carnegie course and thinking I don't know you
[14:34]
course and thinking I don't know you know what I'm learning today you may have a little skepticism during it but I'll bet you will be one of your best decisions what's my favorite color green a lot of my favorite things are green
where's the bomber story so you know the this latest shooter whose name I don't want to use the Marine it this one is one where I haven't heard people say that there should be more armed guards there because this guy was a a trained killer and if you're a trained killer a few security guards aren't going to
[15:34]
a few security guards aren't going to stop you because you just do them first so this guy's kind of an exception when it comes to mass murderers I'm in need of suboxone but it's $500 a month I wonder if that's what sounds like you're in need of health care insurance I assume that would be covered I wonder how big a problem that is how many yeah you know I don't know how many people who are addicts are having problems just paying for this uh boxing I'd be a good question
predictions on who's getting fired I do not
that was the drumming going it's government long my my goal for learning
[16:36]
government long my my goal for learning to play the drums was not that I would ever be good but I can do some stuff now just a little bit of stuff which is fun getting better
did you feel vindicated with perpetually defending Trump when you met him I wouldn't put it that way what I would say was it would be it was probably one of the most telemarketer call I was just saying that meeting the president was I had to be the most interesting thing I've ever done so I guess that's the way I processed it
jinke you may have some some career changes coming up we'll see I just don't know the details of those stories oh
[17:44]
finish your box of pictures Nana so the the idea is that if we live in a simulation the present could rewrite could write the past but only as you need it because you wouldn't build the past just in case somebody needed that you would conserve resources in all likelihood so if you can find a way to change the past you know you're in the simulation and I would argue that the double-slit experiment in physics might be an example of just that this Trump gonna legalize pot to be bipartisan unless I would predict yes unless there's some obstacle that I'm not aware of so there might be something that has nothing to do with politics and nothing to do with persuasion there just might be something I don't know that's holding them back now that other sessions is out of there I don't know what that would be so it would be the right plague as it would control the conversation it would
[18:44]
would control the conversation it would be bipartisan it would be easy it would be fast it would show something's happening so it pretty much has everything going for it and it's very Republican it's kicking it back to the states letting the states Cruz now decide this term do you think honestly I don't know why it doesn't happen before the end of the year except that just the generic reason that there's not much getting done between now and the end of the year yeah it may be that there's just not much work that gets done in Washington so in from that sense it would be a perfect sort of a filler story you know but my guess is that right now the White House has a you know a bunch of things which that they can slot into the dead spaces between now and the end of the year because it won't be as much real news it'll be more sensational stuff for the gossipy stuff and
and [Music] so it's probably on the list and the
[19:47]
so it's probably on the list and the president actually legalized it well all you have to do is come out in favor of legislation I think that would be enough I think that Congress could pass on some pretty quickly
wouldn't we be better for 2020 honestly I think people are gonna be mad if he waits to 2020 because there isn't anything stopping it and it would just make more sense politically to to get a bipartisan wind outing so you could argue you've done something worse veto you know I haven't spent much of any time at all looking at the beta dogon on video it seems like he's just got that good voice and that you know he's tall and he's got here and but I just can't
[20:49]
and he's got here and but I just can't see I can't see Democrats running you know running a tall good-looking white male it just doesn't feel like that would keep their keep their whole you know their party together North and South Korea are moving all the minds on their borders is that new or is that just part of the general denuclearization of the of the border
do you remember any time the vidi has been this biased and unhinged no not even close there's a reason for that and the reason is that the the business model of the media rewards angry people and that just wasn't always the case so
[21:50]
and that just wasn't always the case so now that we can measure how how angry people get you really are obligated as a business to make people angry because that's where the money is I think the thing they might break capitalism is the fact that you can measure well what'd he say here's a here's a late night sort of a Friday question what would happen if people get better and better at persuading and we can measure measure just how well somebody gets persuaded by any particular message they'll say we just keep getting better and better at it at some point the idea of free will will be completely eliminated because we'll know ok this message going to this person under these conditions under this time is definitely going to flip them and then you watch the person go blink and they make a purchase or whatever it is you try to convince them to do the
[22:51]
is you try to convince them to do the moment you can see the entire chain from the persuasion technique through to what it does to the person and then watch them change to the behavior at the moment we can you know move 5 or 10% of the people if you do things right but we're going to keep getting better at it once you can move something like 80 percent of the people to make whatever choice you want just by changing the lighting and the message and the words you use then our entire understanding of free will be obliterated so what happens then I think at that point when your persuasion gets strong enough wait for it what happens when your persuasion goes from weak let's say persuasion was weak in the 50s and then you know through the seventies and Mad Men that era they got better and better and now that we can measure things we can test really quickly what works and what
[23:51]
test really quickly what works and what doesn't and we're better at creating visual stuff and fear and and all that and now we're the best we've ever been in terms of a you know the Society's talents what happens if it keeps getting better because there's nothing to stop persuasion to get more and more powerful as long as you can measure things it will continue to get better so at what point does it become illegal if I could if I told you I know how to make out of a hundred people I know how to make 70 of them do whatever I'm suggesting so assuming it's legal you know and it's not something crazy but if I could make 70 out of 100 people I don't know which 70 but just on average 70 of them I can make make a specific decision at that point it's illegal isn't it you can have to make it illegal because it's just brainwashing at that point so persuasion
[24:54]
brainwashing at that point so persuasion is only legal wait for it because most people can't do it well I'm probably already at a point where I should be illegal if let me put it this way if if the law understood how persuasive I am and then I don't think it ever will if the law could kind of recognize that I think it might be illegal the only reason that's it's legal is that you can't specifically measure what impact I have versus what impact anybody else has as long as other people are also trying to persuade you only you only need one person to be making a difference and you can't tell who it is you know so yeah I'm watching your comments and say
[25:57]
you're trying to persuade this vanity well let me tell you what I basis on so after the election of 2016 I asked on Twitter how many people I had persuaded to vote for Trump who had not already done there and I think around 1,500 people responded that I had changed the mind and changed their vote now that's how many people responded usually there's a multiplier you know if X people said something there's usually you know 10x who actually felt it so given the number of people who had any contact with me through Twitter or whatever to have potentially persuaded tens of thousands is on the border of where it should be illegal and the reason it isn't this because nobody can be sure can't measure it and I can't
[26:59]
be sure can't measure it and I can't either by the way so if you're wondering if my my head is too big I don't know how to add by how big my head should be either because I don't have a any kind of an accurate a sense of how persuasive I actually am all right what do you think of Darren brown I haven't really watched him enough people always ask me and I'm not sure why people ask that question he's a he's a good hypnotist I'm not sure well what else there is to say about that
this camera angle makes my head look bigger well good isn't the beauty of capitalism that it accounts for well that's a big question I don't know I think this will be my least interesting periscope let's
[28:04]
be my least interesting periscope let's end it now I will talk to you all later