Episode 290 Scott Adams: Watching CNN Discover the Worst Case Scenario Develop

Date: 2018-11-07 | Duration: 13:53

Topics

If the Democrats gain a bit of power, it might be good for President Trump

Transcript

The Most Exciting Midterm Election

Bump, bump, bump, bump. Hey everybody, come on in here. It’s time for another update on the most exciting midterm election of my entire life. In fact, it’s the only exciting midterm election of my entire life. I didn’t even know there were midterm elections until recently; that’s how much I didn’t care. But this one’s exciting, and let me tell you what I love about this.

First of all, there are so many different races and it’s all people I don’t really know. Unlike a presidential race where you really know the characters, it’s all these characters I don’t really know. I think, “Have I seen that one on an interview? Am I confusing this one with that one?” For most of what I’m listening to, I have no idea who the players are. I barely know which states they are talking about.

The Score and the Stats

Then they show the statistics or the score so far, the votes, and they’re changing. It’s too early to know how it’ll end. In other words, none of the numbers are really something you should depend on. So I have this weird experience of completely enjoying the experience of not understanding who any of the people are. I can barely tell which one’s the Republican and the Democrat, and I’m not sure I care too much.

But it’s also very exciting because it’s close. It’s super close. I was just watching CNN coverage—and keep in mind that by the time I’m done with this Periscope, the entire situation may have changed—but what I just watched bordered on hilarious and could be getting funnier. I want to alert you there’s something that could be really fun to watch for the rest of tonight.

Trump’s Best-Case Scenario

I think I’ve said this in a few different ways, but I’m going to say it in a more extreme way than I have yet communicated: there is a best-case scenario for President Trump which is slightly different than the best-case scenario for Republicans. There’s a lot of correlation between what’s best for the President and what’s best for Republicans. It’s like 98 percent—what’s good for one is good for the other, right?

But there are a few things in which the President could move ahead while the Republicans as a whole did not. That one unique situation looks like it’s developing, and it looks like this: gaining Republicans in the Senate. So he’s even more powerful in the Senate, he gets all of his Supreme Court nominations, and he has a good power block because he’d have a stronger Senate.

The Power of a Narrow Democrat Majority

The only thing that could make the President stronger as a President is if the Democrats held a narrow majority in the House. It’s absolutely as if you could step back and say, “I’m not biased for one team or the other, but I want to create a situation like a little chess game in which the objective would be to put the pieces to make the President of the United States even more powerful than he already is.”

If that scares you because you’re not a fan of the President, I would suggest that the more powerful he is, the nicer he’s going to be. It’s been quite clear that he uses his provocative rhetoric to break through the crowd, control the conversation, and squeeze everybody outside of the conversation. But as he becomes successful, as he gets things done, and as his legacy grows, he just doesn’t need to be that person. All of his advantage would be to become kinder and nicer and to tone it down.

Trump’s Rhetoric and Legacy

He now has two years of pretty solid accomplishment. The things that the President has not succeeded at require cooperation of at least a few Democrats. As long as the Democrats were in a very weak position, they could simply be the resistance party. It’s like the Chihuahua nipping at your heel. Nobody wants to have a dog bite them, but it’s a Chihuahua. You say, “Just scoot it out of the way.” You don’t even kick it.

Overcoming the Chihuahua Resistance

Maybe you just nudge it with your foot away. The Democrats could just play resistance all day long and you couldn’t get anything done in immigration, healthcare, infrastructure, or prison reform. You can think of a bunch of stuff. All the stuff that the President needs to do next is the stuff that he’s already sort of solidified as presidential powers plus Senate powers.

The gains he has with North Korea? Those will stay. Nobody’s going to undo that. The economy will probably keep on going pretty well. He still can do his executive orders, so he’s going to be locking in a half legacy. The part that’s conspicuously weak—the only thing he’ll lack to be able to get stuff done—is to have the Democrats slightly in control of the House.

Brokering Deals Between Sides

I’m not saying it’s going to go that way. It could be a surprise and the Republicans keep both houses; that’s possible. Most of the weight of opinion—and on this one I don’t have an opinion which way it’s going to lean—is that it will be close. My joke-ish prediction was that it would be a tie, meaning that we wouldn’t know tonight because there would be something too close to call.

The perfect situation for President Trump is to broker deals between two sides that are quite different, but you need somebody who’s got a little more leverage than you can have in the current situation. I will be surprised if you don’t see some good things getting done.

The Sweet Spot of Perfect Balance

The interesting thing to watch tonight is to see if the result comes out in that narrow little lane that would suggest the President is the luckiest person who ever lived. I think that’s his sweet spot where people are kind of close to a perfect balance.

Here’s the basic principle: when things are close to a perfect balance between two sides, the only person who has power is the one who could go either way. Nobody else is part of the decision. If you’ve got this perfect balance of the Senate and the House and either one can’t get anything done, the only person in the country who could make a difference is the one who can say, “I’m going to go over here this time. I’m going to make this happen.”

Legislative Incentive and Newt Gingrich

Watch if that’s what happens. See if there’s a growing realization that the President’s power might increase. I feel quite confident that would not be a bad thing because he has far more personal incentive plus patriotic incentive to do a good job, and he needs a little bit more leverage over the legislative process to get a whole bunch of stuff done that most people want to get done. I think it will be similar to the Bill Clinton situation where he figures out how to make deals.

I would love to hear Newt Gingrich’s opinion on what I just said. I’ve told you before there are some people who, if they disagree with my opinion, I’ll immediately change my opinion. If it’s something legal and Dershowitz has a different opinion, I’ll just change my opinion to whatever he said because that’s the smart play. It’s the same with Newt Gingrich when it comes to stuff like getting legislation through. If he disagrees, I’ll change my opinion.

The Video Game Experience

How much fun is it watching the results be so close and switching back and forth? It’s totally like a video game in which whoever you think is your player, you have lots of data coming in from the screen saying, “Oh, your player lost this round, your player is behind,” but then others will be, “Oh, yours is winning.” You’re getting these little charges of whatever the chemical reaction is that makes you feel happy. It’s actually weirdly exciting in a way I’ve never seen before. Am I the only one having this experience?

I think most of you are watching this or you wouldn’t be watching this Periscope, but are you having an actual, almost video game, smartphone-like experience? Even CNN—and you can’t see it—but the point is the color and the production. Look how it’s framed. This is actually perfect framing.

Network Production Quality

The quality of the production is really high on this. Whoever is doing the directing—I’m not sure what job that is—but both the networks, Fox News as well, have pulled out the stops in terms of bringing their best, most interesting on-air talent.

Even the backgrounds, the colors, and the sounds—have you noticed that the videos they’re using for their explainers are way better than you’ve ever seen before? They’ve all got these animated maps and they’re going back and forth saying, “Well, if this goes this way, this goes this way.” I swear I do not know what’s happening most of the time, but it’s exactly the same feeling I get if I go to Las Vegas.

The Las Vegas Comparison

I’ll play one of those Chinese-themed video games with the big screen. Have you ever played one of those? You put your money in and a whole bunch of things happen on the screen. Sometimes it gives you some money back; most of the time it doesn’t. You have no idea why it’s sometimes winning and sometimes it isn’t, but it doesn’t matter because knowing wouldn’t change the result. It feels exactly like that. It feels like watching slots where I’m getting winners and losers, but there are just enough winners that I get a little payoff.

Fox News Projects Democrats Gain the House

Let’s see how things are progressing. Let’s check in. Let’s go over to Fox News, the other universe. Fox News projects Democrats gain control of the House. The interesting thing will be by how much. I’m just looking at that right now. Fox News projects the Democrats gained control of the House. That would go the way everybody thought, but we’ll see. Could we be surprised?

The real question will be: will we know for sure tonight and how close will it be? Will the blue ripple turn out to be a big victory for the President because it gives him more leverage than he would have had even holding both houses? That’s it for now. I’m going to go catch up on the news and I’ll catch up with you later tonight.