Episode 271 Scott Adams: Saudi Alibis, Soros, Caravans, FentanylChina, Fake News
Date: 2018-10-24 | Duration: 57:51
Topics
100 pictures of Comey and Mueller hugging 7,000 person caravan…it’s for the cameras Chinese spy chips on motherboards per Bloomberg, Apple says nope Opioid reduction bill, closing the postal and cross-shipping loopholes Getting off Fentanyl or other opioids with Suboxone Lying in western cultures is different than in Arab cultures? Western style lying is to convince the other person In Arab cultures…lying is sometimes just to get past a topic? George Soros derangement syndrome and the arguments against him NPC (Non-Player Characters) is brutally effective persuasion Is NPC bad and need banning…or is it just funny like @NPC_Dale? President Trump says he’s a Nationalist…so what?
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## Transcript
## [The Simultaneous Sip](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=7s)
I'm pumping them up and popping them up. Hey Joanne, come on in here. I see you, Kevin. The question of the day is: what is better than Coffee with Scott Adams by Periscope? Answer: nothing. Nothing's better than Coffee with Scott Adams, and you happen to be in the right place at the right time.
It's time to grab your cup, your mug, your stein, your chalice, your glass, your container of beverage. Fill it with your favorite beverage—I like coffee—and join me for the simultaneous sip.
## [Technical Advice for Viewers](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=69s)
First order of business: a number of people are complaining that they're looking at my face covered with comments. If you take your phone and you turn it sideways like this, the screen will change on your device so that the comments are in a separate place from the face. Better yet, my face will get smaller and the comments will get bigger. You really don't want to be looking at my face in the largest possible size, trust me on this.
## [Trump's Persuasion: The Comey and Mueller Hugging Photos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=129s)
There are many funny things happening in the world today. Apparently, President Trump said in his rally speech something about a hundred pictures of Comey and Mueller hugging. Trump puts in people's minds the image of Comey and Mueller hugging and says there are a hundred pictures of it. Somebody did a Freedom of Information Act to get all the photos of Comey and Mueller hugging and decided it was fake news.
In the meantime, they circulated around the image of Comey and Mueller hugging. So even though it doesn't exist—there are apparently no photos of Comey and Mueller hugging—you can't get it out of your head. It's in there now. Here again, President Trump has used a small inaccuracy to completely persuade.
## [President Trump's Approval Polls](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=191s)
How good is he at persuading? Well, his latest approval polls from NBC put him at 47% compared to Obama at about the same time, who I believe was 45%. Keep in mind that 47% is up from zero. When Trump first announced his candidacy, what was his popularity level? Five percent, something like that.
President Trump has gone from about 5% in popularity on the day he announced to 47%. That is something like a ten-times increase in popularity. When people say to me, "Why do you say you think he's so persuasive?" I say, well, he did become president with no practice, and his popularity has gone up tenfold in two years. Has anybody else's popularity gone up tenfold in two years? Probably not.
## [The Migrant Caravan as a Persuasion Fashion Show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=251s)
Here are some comments about the caravan. I know you want to call it a mob, but let's call it a caravan. The big caravan—7,000 people coming up. You've seen lots of pictures. What strikes you about the pictures? One is it's mostly male. The other is they're not really carrying much for people who walked hundreds of miles.
The caravan is a lot like a fashion show. When I was young, I used to watch televised fashion shows, usually just a clip in the news. The clip they always showed was somebody on the runway wearing some gigantic weird hat made out of tin cans and goldfish. Being an unsophisticated kid, I would say to myself, "This is ridiculous. Why are they having a fashion show of people wearing things that nobody would ever wear?"
I did not understand that the fashion show is for the camera. The fashion show is not about anybody buying those clothes; it has nothing to do with that. It's just to get attention for the brand. They wear the most outrageous things they can so that idiots like me would say, "My God, who's going to wear an outfit like that?"
The mob is a little like that. When you're looking at the caravan, the caravan is like a fashion show. These are not the people who are the poor immigrants; these are the people who are there for the camera, for the protest, for the persuasion. The reason they're not carrying much with them is because obviously there's some massive support system behind them. Have you yet seen a picture of the massive support system? I haven't. There must be a lot of buses. There must be gigantic trucks full of supplies and backpacks. There's probably sunscreen; pretty much all of the men have baseball caps to protect from the sun. When you're saying to yourself, "Those people don't have backpacks; they can't be real immigrants," you're like I was when I was a kid watching a fashion show. The people in the caravan are about the cameras; they're not about migration so much. If you get that frame right, it all makes sense.
## [The Logistics and Costs of Crossing the Border](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=435s)
The other thing I find amusing: we keep hearing reported that families would have to spend something like $5,000 to coyotes—which I think are mostly the cartel—to get across the border. How many of those 7,000 people have $5,000 on them? Does the cartel take checks? I'm very confused about whether any of these people are in that same category as the people who pay $5,000 to get across. I imagine that nobody in that crowd has $5,000. Let's not conflate that; this particular group, I don't think they're looking for the cartel to move them across. You probably don't want to start the rumor that they're carrying large amounts of money with them. I can't imagine that they're bristling with cash.
## [Bloomberg vs. Apple: The Chinese Spy Chip Controversy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=497s)
Not long ago, Bloomberg did a big report in which they said China had put little spy chips on a lot of motherboards so that a lot of our technology, including technology from Apple, has Chinese spy technology right on the boards. Apple looked at its technology and said, "No, we don't. There is absolutely nothing to this. This report is 100% false."
Here's the interesting part: Bloomberg is sticking to its reporting. Tim Cook from Apple says, "We're basically one of the top technology companies in the history of the universe. We're looking at this board, and we're telling you there's 100% certainty there's nothing on there. Could you please issue a correction?"
Bloomberg says no. On one hand, you've got the entire Apple technology team—the highest level of technology in the world—but on the other side, Bloomberg has got this reporter, and they're sticking with the reporter. Good Lord, Bloomberg, what is going on there?
## [The Opioid Reduction Bill and Closing China Loopholes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=619s)
Apparently, the President is getting ready to sign the big opioid reduction bill. There's something happening right now that will authorize the Post Office to check every package coming from China. I think it's a digital platform; I don't know the exact details, but it's modeled on what FedEx does. They're taking a model which has been tested small. Remember, I keep telling you: whenever there's something that can be tested small, do it. In this case, FedEx is already using this system. When the U.S. Post Office says, "Should we do this?" they don't have to wonder if it's a good idea. They just look at FedEx and say, "Is it working for you? Yes. Okay, let's do that."
You're seeing the government operate very much the way you would want a government to operate: looking at a small trial, doing the research. Everything's slower than it ought to be, but it looks like they're getting the right answer. I also started piecing together some of the things the administration is doing to squeeze China. Apparently, the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada that replaces NAFTA also does something to prevent China from sending goods to Mexico and then having it appear to be coming from Mexico. He's closed that loophole. This President is closing the China postal loophole and the Mexico transit loophole. These are big deals.
## [Treating Fentanyl as a Weapon of Mass Destruction](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=741s)
I'm in the camp that says you probably can't reduce the amount of fentanyl in the world because it's so easy to make. They found $28 million worth of it in a package about this size. It might cost $10,000 to produce it. There's no way in the world, given economics and the upside of being a dealer, that they're ever going to put a dent in the supply.
That said, you should still do everything you can to punish the mass murderers who are involved in it. I think fentanyl has to be treated like a weapon of mass destruction and not like a drug. Cocaine is a drug; heroin is a drug. Fentanyl is a weapon of mass destruction. While I am in favor of executing Chinese nationals who we know to be fentanyl dealers—if China won't do it, I say we send in our people to kill them on their behalf. It's illegal in China, and if China was operating as a respectable, functional government, it would be executing them itself. We could do them a favor and do it for them.
## [Getting Off Opioids with Suboxone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=863s)
At the same time we're executing mass murderers, we should be treating the users in whatever way is humane and workable. Having a tainted supply of fentanyl is a bigger risk than having no fentanyl available because people will go to the black market and get sketchy stuff. It's probably what killed my stepson a month ago—getting a sketchy supply. We don't have confirmation, but it seems likely.
I started digging into the issue of getting off fentanyl and getting off opioids in general. There's a drug called Suboxone that you can take that helps people get off of opioids. When you're on Suboxone, taking a real opioid will make you go into withdrawal and make you very sick. If you're on it, it keeps you from taking the illegal stuff that could kill you.
From what I've learned, if you were to take Suboxone in the right amount under a doctor's care, your odds of being able to then wean off the Suboxone—and therefore be off everything eventually—is very, very high. This was my surprise. My assumption was that getting off opioids was very hard to the point where most people couldn't do it. But it does seem that if a doctor is working with a motivated person with Suboxone, and they are tapering off on a very slow taper, the odds of it working are really high. It actually works pretty much almost all the time.
Believe it or not, we have an actual cure for addiction; it's just not implemented because experts differ a little bit. If you're tapering slowly off the Sub, you're not suffering; there's no withdrawal. It makes me think we may be very close to being able to completely beat opioid addiction, but it's probably about the system, not the resources. We could have a system where every addict wore an Apple Watch. The Apple Watch tells them when to take their Suboxone. If they don't take it and report back through an app, they get a phone call from a human who says, "Why are you ignoring your Suboxone?" We can easily imagine a way to guarantee that someone takes the Suboxone at the right amount and the right time. If we can get a trial going, we could probably solve opioids.
## [Cultural Differences in Lying: The Khashoggi Alibi](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=1236s)
I am fascinated by the Saudi story about Khashoggi. The story is that the Saudis allegedly sent a hit team to kill Khashoggi in the Saudi embassy in Turkey, planned in advance as evidenced by the body double and all this stuff. The part that's hard to understand is why the Saudi explanation was so bad. It was so bad that even the President called it the "worst cover-up ever." Why would a modern, sophisticated leadership come up with an explanation that he died accidentally in a fistfight, which nobody is going to believe?
I have an answer for you. It turns out—and let me couch this by saying I'm not the expert, this is what I've read from people with more knowledge about the culture—lying isn't the same thing in the Arab culture as it is in Western culture. I'm not talking about *Taqiyya*; that's a separate, special case. I'm talking about Arab culture, not Islam.
In Western culture, when you tell a lie, the purpose is to get the other person to believe it's true. Apparently, in the Arab culture, a lie doesn't have to be in the service of trying to convince somebody it's true. You could say something that's completely not true, that you know the other person knows is not true, but because it would be impolite to call it a lie, it's just a way to get past the topic.
The example given was Yasser Arafat. He was once at a meeting with important government people and acted like he didn't know who they were. The Western negotiators were perplexed. Finally, Arafat's aides started laughing because they couldn't keep it up, and Arafat just said, "Okay, I'll talk to them." Arafat was telling a lie to their faces that he knew they knew was a lie, and that was just normal business. It was just to get past the conversation.
When you see Saudi Arabia say he died in a fistfight, Saudi Arabia never expected anybody to believe it. That’s the part we were all missing. MBS, the Crown Prince, reportedly couldn't understand why the world was so incensed. He was likely confused why his "excuse" didn't work. In the United States, people say, "That's obviously a lie. Why are you lying to us?" The answer is a cultural difference. They knew it was a lie, they knew you wouldn't believe it, but that was never the goal. The goal was just to say something to get past it.
## [George Soros and Soros Derangement Syndrome](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=1790s)
I've been having this long conversation about George Soros and whether he's really the bogeyman or if it's "Soros Derangement Syndrome." People send me this video where he was a 14-year-old helping the Nazis. If you go to Snopes, you can see the actual video in which he says he was just an observer. According to his own words, he was observing; he wasn't the guy helping the Nazis, he just happened to exist at the same time. If your opinion of Soros is based on that video, see it in context.
The other thing is that Soros has this "one-world government" idea. He has a big, complicated idea that looks impractical, but because it's complicated, people misinterpret it to mean he wants to get rid of all governments. He does want some global organizations to have power so economics are decided efficiently and you don't have disruptions. That's not crazy.
People say I'm being naive. I'm admitting that I'm starting my journey to understand him. My guess is many of you are suffering from the Soros variety of Trump Derangement Syndrome. That doesn't mean you have to agree with him. You can disagree with his lefty politics or the idea of global economic control. He'd like a global legal system so that if North Korea was abusing its people, the world could do something. That's either a good idea or a bad idea, but it doesn't sound evil. It also doesn't sound practical. I can't imagine any world in which these things would happen. Calling him an enemy is overstating the situation.
Soros will tell you himself that his influence is bigger than it should be. He is his own argument: that people like Soros should not have so much power. My problem with the anti-Soros people—like Lee Stranahan—is that if you can't describe briefly in a tweet what the problem is, you don't know what the problem is. If you ask people what the problem with Soros is, they'll either send you an edited video or say he wants "one government," which is a gross oversimplification. They'll say he's funding Democratic groups—so what? Billionaires fund Republicans too. That's what makes it a fair fight.
My current opinion of Soros is that he's well-intentioned, has some impractical ideas you don't like, and funds lefty groups like Black Lives Matter. You can disagree with him, but it’s not the biggest problem in the world. When people on the Right obsess over Soros, you throw away your credibility. The Left just sees it as crazy. He's not breaking the law; he's got an opinion, and you don't like it.
## [The NPC Meme and Social Media Censorship](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=2348s)
Let's talk about this NPC thing. The "non-player character" thing—the memes going around where people on the Left are like video game characters who can only say a few different sentences. It is brutally effective persuasion because it reduces people to NPCs who only say one thing regardless of the situation, like "Orange man bad."
Apparently, people are being banned from social media for pushing this meme. It doesn't seem that bad; it seems funny. Twitter suspended "NPC Dale," a character who was in my feed pretending to be a leftist insulting me. It was satire. Persuasion is being banned for effectiveness. As persuasion gets better, it's going to have to become illegal. People say the NPC thing is dehumanizing. Technically, yes, but in a silly, rhetorical way. I wouldn't worry about it, but I don't make the rules.
## [Blocking Trolls and Labeling "Nazis"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=2595s)
Have you noticed that the calling of Trump supporters and Trump a "Nazi" has largely fallen off? I continue to use my technique: if someone criticizes my opinion, I’ll engage, but if they go after me personally—"You're such an idiot, you're a jerk"—I label them as Nazis for their personal politics being against the people and not the idea, and then I block them.
The quality of my web traffic has gone way up. It used to feel like every third tweet was someone calling me a bad name. Since I started aggressively labeling them as Nazis and blocking them, it’s been wonderfully successful. I make sure they see the message: "I block Nazis, goodbye." It's changed my experience because I have fun now. It doesn't take that long to weed out the small group creating all the problems.
## [President Trump as a Nationalist](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=2716s)
The President said he's a nationalist. His critics say, "Oh, nationalist, you mean white nationalist." If that's the best the Left has, they are so out of ammo. Being a nationalist is the job description of the President. Would you elect a president who said, "I like America, but I don't love it. I'm kind of pro-Estonia"? The President you want is the one who puts the U.S. first. The fact that the Left is using that as an attack is ridiculous. He used an accurate word to describe the job description.
## [The "Jobs Not Mobs" Slogan and Viral Tweets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=2838s)
My tweet has been terribly popular: *The Republican slogan is 'Jobs not Mobs.' The Democrat slogan is: 'There really aren't that many murderers in the caravan if you consider how many people there are.'*
It's up to 5,400 retweets because it feels right. People accept the first part is true, and the second part strikes people as the best message coming out of the Democrats right now. Obviously, I'm wording it in a funny way, but that is the message.
## [Immigrant Crime Statistics and Reporting Challenges](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=2962s)
I saw statistics that the immigrant class as a whole has lower crime than non-immigrants. I wonder if they included all immigrants versus those coming across the southern border. If you assume every population commits more crime against its own people, and illegal immigrants who are victims of crime don't report it to avoid the legal system, wouldn't it be literally impossible to know what the crime rate is? You might know for legal immigrants, but for those who came across illegally, the crimes within their own community probably don't get reported. You get a totally misleading view. I'm a moderate on immigration—we need a better system—but my empathy is high for people who just want a better life.
## [Megyn Kelly and the Perils of Context](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=3151s)
Megyn Kelly made a comment that's giving her a lot of negative attention. I think there's a little too much schadenfreude there. It makes me sad to watch people be so happy about bad news for Megyn Kelly. I think she's always been good at her job and has good intentions. She said something that was taken out of context to make her look bad. That's all you need to know.
## [Venezuela’s Alleged Involvement and Mail Bomb Threats](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-cxT_2Ubs&t=3216s)
Nikki Haley said Venezuela and Cuba are behind the migrant invasion. Mike Pence said Venezuela too. I'm highly skeptical of that. Why would Venezuela try to do that? All it does is strengthen President Trump. They must be looking for violence to start at the border; otherwise, none of this makes sense.
There have also been bombs left at Soros's house, Bill and Hillary Clinton's house, and CNN. That's going to stoke the claims that the Right is where all the violence is coming from. Pence said Venezuela was funding the organization—how does Venezuela have a penny? There's something about the Venezuela story that's not quite connecting for me. As for the bombs being mailed, that's a law enforcement issue. I'm not sure I have anything more to say about that.