Episode 233 Scott Adams: Kavanaugh’s Virgin Card and Trump’s Great Week
Date: 2018-09-25 | Duration: 27:38
Topics
Kavanaugh was a virgin through high school and many years beyond Judge Kavanaugh “set the bar” very high in his MacCallum interview Whiteboard discussion: President Trump’s GREAT week!
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## Transcript
## [Rosenstein Rumors and Kavanaugh Interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=8s)
Hey, it's me again with another Periscope. Hello, Jacqueline. Hello, Austin. Come on in here. It's going to be the best Periscope I've ever done this afternoon. It's also the only Periscope I'm going to do this afternoon, but I promise you it will be just terrific.
We’ve got enough people in the air; I'm going to jump right into it. Number one: what did I tell you this morning about the unconfirmed source about Rod Rosenstein getting fired today? I said that's not dependable, and sure enough, he was not fired today. Keep a little mental running list of how many times the anonymous source is just completely wrong.
The other news we have is that Brett Kavanaugh was interviewed by Martha MacCallum today and asked about the allegations. You're wondering, how did he do? Did he acquit himself well? Did he dig himself in deeper? Let me tell you, Kavanaugh didn't do anything like that.
## [Kavanaugh’s Performance and Strategy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=68s)
The worst thing he could have done is to be aggressive and alpha male, coming at it hard. Some people are calling it the Clarence Thomas effect, where you have the booming voice and you declare vehemently your innocence. We might still see that at some future time, but instead, he went completely in the opposite direction. He said that he was a virgin in high school and for several years after. I did not see that coming.
## [The "Virgin Defense"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=130s)
How did that affect things? It's going to get him nominated, or it's going to get him on the court. I would say that the odds of him being kept off the court now are close to zero. The problem is that the entire allegations were built on the notion that he's "this kind of guy." Not only did he admit that he was a virgin during all those years and the years after—and I'm not making fun of him—it's an excellent defense. If the question is "is he that kind of a guy" or "was he that kind of a guy," you can't say for sure that a virgin wouldn't do bad things. Nobody can say "he is a virgin, therefore he didn't do these things he's alleged to do." That doesn't make sense. But if you're trying to figure out if he is that kind of person, that's a really good defense.
## [Kavanaugh’s Vulnerability](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=192s)
Secondly, did it seem like he was ready to cry? Toward the end, it looked like he almost couldn't speak, like he was ready to cry. It was a sensitive moment. Again, I'm not making fun of him. Imagine if you put anybody in that position with the effect it has on his family especially; it's going to be pretty upsetting. But by being sensitive and being vulnerable—admitting he was a virgin during those years, which wasn't the "cool" thing to do—I think he has largely guaranteed that he's going to get on the court now.
I don't know that he played it that way because it was a good strategy; it just might be who he is. It's entirely possible that there are no layers here, that there are no levels. What I saw was somebody telling the truth about the virgin thing. I don't think he made that up.
## [Empathy and Societal Perceptions](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=254s)
He was vulnerable as hell, and it reminded me of something that it's easy to forget. Let's see if you had the same feeling. We assume when we hear an allegation that something happened to the person making the allegation. We can assume that she may in fact—in fact, probably is—a victim of something by somebody, or in some way life has dealt her a bad card. I think that part's true, and we should have an appropriate amount of empathy for the accuser, as we should for all people.
We've had some empathy for the judge, but since he's accused of a heinous thing and he's an adult playing at the highest level—and frankly, he's a large white male—people don't really have the same kind of empathy. Tall white males in powerful positions; it's just not an empathy situation in our current society.
## [Kavanaugh’s Family as Victims](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=317s)
But here's the thing: when you hear him with his wife, who was obviously distraught, talking about the impact they had on their daughters—imagine the effect on the wife and the family. Imagine those effects. They are victims. While we certainly have a question to answer, which is was Christine Blasey Ford a victim then, let's not forget that no matter what the answer to that is, Kavanaugh's wife and his kids are victims right now.
## [Avenatti and the Ongoing Impact](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=379s)
They're still being abused. Michael Avenatti is abusing Kavanaugh's wife and children right now. Let me say that again: Avenatti and others—but he seems to be a primary person here—is abusing Kavanaugh's wife and children right now. It's a crime in action right now. Let's not forget that there are some serious victims here, some in the past, but these are happening right now.
I don't know if it's two or three daughters; somebody’s saying two. Thank you for the correction. Fact-checking says two daughters. But anyway, the point is the same. My net of this is that he probably handled this in the best possible way. He reminded us that there are other victims right now. He was vulnerable. He didn't act even slightly like the guy he's accused of being.
## [A Winning Strategy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=440s)
You add that to the fact that there are no corroborating eyewitnesses, and then the unusual behavior of the accuser. Christine Ford not wanting to drive—even if there are perfectly good reasons for all those things, they're raising all kinds of flags. The other thing that I haven't heard anybody say, so I'll just say it: this is the sort of thing that responsible people on television aren't going to say, but since I know you're all thinking it, I'm just going to say what you're thinking.
## [The Psychology Profession Observation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=502s)
People who go into the psychology field as a profession tend to have some issues they are working through. Am I wrong? People go into the psychology field to become professional psychologists to help other people; in every case I've ever personally known, they had some real issues in their own past that they were working through. I'm not saying that's the case with Christine Ford. What I'm saying is that from the perspective of the public and the professionals making decisions about this, all of these little flags are starting to come up.
None of them individually tells you anything. It doesn't really mean anything that she didn't want to fly. If you were looking at that alone, it wouldn't mean anything. It doesn't mean anything that her profession is psychology. But you start adding them together, and it's this picture of something that's not quite right.
## [Setting the Bar High](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=562s)
You compare that to his defense. Unless Christine Ford comes over great in the interview, I think the decision is done. She could be very, very persuasive, but she's got a high bar because Judge Kavanaugh just set the bar, and he set it very high. Kavanaugh's version of events is sort of a gold standard at this point. That doesn't mean he's right or telling the truth, but if you're just looking at the quality of the performance, man, he was good. Very good.
## [Trump’s Best Week Ever: Woodward’s Book](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=624s)
Let me talk about Trump's great week. I have claimed that this is Trump's best week ever in terms of persuasion. People said to me, "What do you mean? There's all this bad news." I'm going to conflate a few weeks here. Let's go to the whiteboard. I'm going to give you the 2-dimensional look and then the three-dimensional look.
First, there's Bob Woodward's book, *Fear*. What is the 2-dimensional take on that? It's a book by a credible writer and researcher who says the president is impulsive and maybe a little crazy and angry. But was that anything new? It's sort of what we've always heard. You always think there's a little hyperbole. Why is it that everybody who talks to him in person doesn't see any of this? I talked to him in person for long enough that if he were crazy, I kind of would have picked up on it. It seems like nobody else is picking up on it either.
## [No Collusion Findings](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=687s)
The 3D take on this is that all of the accusations in the book were kind of baked in already. But the thing that was surprising was the "no collusion." The Watergate guy, the great researcher with the best sources, really got the insider stuff and he said he couldn't find any Russia problem. That does not mean that Mueller will find nothing—the lack of finding something doesn't mean there's nothing there. But in terms of how it looks in persuasion, the bad parts are discounted and the "no collusion" part remains. You're hearing a lot less about Russia this week, aren't you?
## [The Rosenstein Leak](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=749s)
Then there's the Rosenstein story that was leaked to the New York Times in which allegedly Rosenstein considered the 25th Amendment. My take on that is that he probably did not consider it, although it might have come up. If it comes up, you're going to talk about it because it came up. (I got the wrong name of the book—it was *Fear*, not *Fury*. We're fact-checking as we go.)
## [The Deep State Narrative](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=810s)
The Rosenstein story sounds terrible, right? "Somebody at that high level was talking about the 25th Amendment!" Well, first of all, it probably didn't happen. Rosenstein already denied it happened in any serious way; he said it was sarcastic, and that sounds very believable to me. But it works really well for Trump because it confirms whatever suspicions you had about the "Deep State." It confirms that people were working against him. It makes it look like there was a coup in the administration. It's also a good-bye to Rod, because now the president can just easily fire him whenever he wants to. The best thing that could have happened for the president is that the Deep State is shown to be real—or it looks real.
## [Supreme Court and Reproductive Rights](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=872s)
Then, of course, the discussion about the Supreme Court ends up being all about *Roe v. Wade*. It's all about reproductive rights and women. Now, it's not all about that because the Supreme Court handles lots of stuff, but the way the news and social media have focused it, they made it a women's issue. The two-dimensional way to look at that is that the left is making a case that the GOP are bad for women.
## [Democrat Strategy and Minority Voters](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=934s)
But on the three-dimensional level—the persuasion level—focusing on women as the priority for the conversation kind of leaves some people out, doesn't it? Do you remember any conversation about how anything could be good for black people or Hispanics? On some level, they're going to notice that nobody's talking about them—meaning specifically their own team. The Democrats have very consciously made this a woman's issue. If you're black or Hispanic, your group is not coming up a lot. That’s not good.
## [Trump’s Economic Performance](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=995s)
At the same time, President Trump is producing more jobs and a good economy. He seems to be helping in a way which tries to help everybody. He tries to build a wall; ideally, that would be good for the folks who are competing for jobs.
## [Credibility and Backlash](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1056s)
On the Kavanaugh allegations specifically, the question is: are they true or false? We're arguing about the weeds. But on the persuasion level, the accusers are unusually not credible. You start with the notion that when a woman makes an accusation, she should be taken seriously. In moment one, that's probably the highest level of credibility. But as things go on, you don't get the corroboration, and the person making the allegations seems a little flaky. That doesn't mean she is; it's just the way it's being portrayed. The accusers are becoming less credible because this batch is going through a filter that is not helping them. It looks like an overreach, and I think there'll be some backlash.
## [Democratic Overreach with Men](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1117s)
If the accusers are not credible to some big portion of the country and it looks like an overreach, what group of citizens is going to be the most concerned about that? The answer is men. If you are a man, or you are black or Hispanic, the Democratic Party is making a great case for people who are not you. They're making men the enemy and they're completely ignoring the black and Hispanic part of their base. That's all good for Trump.
## [North Korea and the Racism Narrative](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1179s)
In North Korea, the standard way to look at this in the mainstream media is that all these little hiccups and cancellations are evidence that we're being played. But on the persuasion level, you can see that North and South Korea are marching pretty briskly to make something work. It's hard to criticize where they are at this point.
What accusation about the president have you not heard this week? "He's a racist." The whole racist thing requires a somewhat permanent refilling of the hose. If you go a while without something the media can define as racism, this fades away. You're not seeing new laws that are racist. Because this Kavanaugh situation is in the headline, it's driven Russia and the racist things out of the headlines.
## [Russia and Foreign Policy Wins](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1241s)
The economy is screaming. North Korea is going well. Russia doesn't seem to be a problem. The president was just making friends with Poland recently; I don't think Russia loves that. The president got Russia to back down on their attack on Idlib in Syria. That doesn't look like giving Putin everything he wants. We're seeing over and over again that the president is having his way with Russia.
## [Trade Deals and Tariffs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1304s)
Now let's talk about the trade deals. Full disclosure: I'm an investor in a startup—not my own startup, but something I invested in—which could go out of business because of the tariffs. There was a 25% tariff on their primary product. Their cost to sell went up 25%. It’s probably a crushing blow. For those of you who say I support the president because I'm going to get rich like a "fat cat," I'm doing it all wrong, because I've only lost money in this whole deal since Trump announced. But I feel good for the future. The trade agreements will probably work out in the long run.
## [Summarizing Trump’s Best Week](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1366s)
Things are going really well for President Trump this week. It just doesn't seem like it because there's so much bad stuff out there related to the administration indirectly. Anything Kavanaugh gets accused of, people are going to say somehow indicates the whole administration. How many of you think I made my point that this was a great week for the president? Maybe his best week, because I can't think of any week in which everything was going so well at the same time, persuasion-wise anyway.
## [James Woods and Twitter Censorship](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1428s)
Kavanaugh must be confirmed, though. I think he will be. Let's talk about James Woods and his suspension on Twitter. I was thinking that the reason James Woods got banned is that meme he sent around that indicated some men were going to not vote because they wanted the women's vote to be worth more. The idea is that if anybody thought that was true, maybe they would join the movement and not vote, and then the Democrats would have fewer votes. James said it's unlikely it's true, but you never know in this environment. The words he put around the meme indicated it might be true. That was enough to get him banned.
## [A Satirical Solution for James Woods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1489s)
I understand if he deletes the meme, they'll let him back on. But I hear he might be holding tight to make a point, which would be clever. The other way to make James Woods' meme okay is to actually form an organization of Democratic men who have agreed not to vote so that the women's vote can be more important. Actually, you wouldn't make it "Democrat men," just make it "men." You could hope that more people on the other side believe it than your side, but in this case, it would be a real organization.
I'm saying don't do it for humor; create an actual organization that is trying to convince men not to vote because "men are the problem." There are a lot of people who think men are the problem. If people legitimately had a movement that said, "Look, men are the problem, don't vote, let women have a greater vote," it would probably work out well for Republicans. It would be funny and it would make James Woods' meme accurate; therefore, they would have to let him back on because he no longer would be passing around a false meme. It would become true.
## [Closing Thoughts](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELldWKA5Sp8&t=1551s)
Somebody says this is stupid, and they're right. That's not a real suggestion, by the way. It was just something I thought of that was funny. I'm not really recommending you do that. That was just for fun.
Some are saying he made a new account with "alt" at the end of his name, but people have been telling me authoritatively that's not really him. That's just somebody trying to get a lot of followers. Don't assume that's him; we're assuming that's going to be a parody account. I think I'm done for now, and I will talk to you all later.