Episode 197 Scott Adams: My John McCain Story

Date: 2018-08-27 | Duration: 23:12

Topics

China trade agreement progress…the first domino falls Scott shares his personal John McCain story and one on CNN Adam Schiff says he doesn’t see grounds for impeachment Identifying predictive patterns Lionel and Q…does that mean anything?

Transcript

Introduction

Hey everybody, come on in here. Hello Kitten, hello Martin, somebody named Jesus—I can’t tell—and Nicholas and the rest of you. Well, it’s good to see you. It’s been a long weekend. It’s time for morning coffee with Scott Adams. Hey Garrett, grab your mug, your vessel, your container filled with your favorite beverage—I think coffee is a good choice, your mileage may vary. It’s time for the simultaneous sip.

Mexico Trade Deal and the China Domino Effect

The news today is that Mexico is getting ready to sign a new trade deal with the United States. Do you know what happens when Mexico signs a trade deal with the United States? Well, then we start negotiating with Canada. Do you know what happens when Canada signs a trade agreement with the United States? Well, then we’ve got two trade agreements done and the dominoes will start to fall. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom.

Hello, November. What’s the biggest thing people are worried about in terms of the economy? Trade agreements. What happens when they start coming in and people start signing them, and they do look maybe a little bit better than they looked before? Now, I don’t know what this Mexican trade agreement will look like, but I wonder if it will be the kind of thing where Trump supporters say it is a big win and Trump critics say, “Oh my God, he ruined another agreement.” I’ve got a feeling it’s going to be one of those things where they can see whatever they want to see.

But I’m going to think that it’s more win than not win. When the dominoes start falling, China might be the last domino, but it will get embarrassing to China if they’re the only ones that can’t make a deal. Think about it. Think about the impact of the prior deals on future deals, because it’s all connected in our minds. If China and everybody else is holding out, it’s easier to hold out. But as soon as the friendlier deals get signed, China is going to start getting isolated. There will just be a few people holding out, and then what happens when the world is looking at this situation and sees that everybody can sign a deal with the United States except China? What’s wrong, China? Why can’t you sign the deal with the United States? So, it should make an impact to get these other deals signed first.

North Korea Deadlock

You’re seeing some chatter out of North Korea about the fact that Pompeo canceled his trip because there wasn’t enough progress. It looks like they’ve come down to a “who goes first” situation. You have to be a little careful about the reporting out of that part of the world because you never really know if you’re getting the real story. But if it’s true that the obstacle right now is that both sides are waiting for the other side to make a big move—a big first move—that feels like something that could get solved. It doesn’t feel like something that can’t get solved. If I had more details, I might be able to suggest a way to get past that, but I don’t quite know what the variables are that are in play.

My John McCain Story: Turtle Island

Let me tell you my John McCain story. It’s a good day to tell a good John McCain story. It was 2006, maybe, and I was on the biggest, longest trip I think I’ve taken anywhere outside the country. I was on a tiny little island in the Pacific called Turtle Island. You can only get there by a rickety old seaplane. It’s a very exclusive little island; it’s where they filmed the movie Blue Lagoon, just a little bit of historical note.

I think there were only 15 or 20 guests staying at the island that week, and I think there were about 30 employees. There were more people working on the island than there were guests. Everybody had their own little bungalow and it was a special place. One day, my ex and I were in a little golf cart that they used to transport you from one side of the island to the other. The Fijian gentleman who was driving—I’m thinking he was in his late 30s—was a local man. He’s driving us across the island and he’s making conversation. He says, “So, are you following the elections?” or whatever was happening in politics at the time. I wasn’t really following them, but I made some conversation.

Then, just out of nowhere, this Fijian driver says, “Do you know John McCain?” It was a funny way that he put it. I thought, “No, I don’t know him,” but I’m watching politics blow up. He goes on to tell me that he knows John McCain. I’m literally in the middle of the Pacific on Turtle Island, and one of these Fijian employees is saying, “Oh yeah, John McCain and his wife, they vacation here all the time.” He said it’s the regular place they go. It sounds like they’d been there a number of times, enough so that the small staff on the island knew them quite well and knew them personally.

He said, “Yeah, he’s here a lot. I got to know him over the years.” And he said that McCain told him if he was ever in the mainland, he should come look him up and stay with him. Just picture this: John McCain, one of the most powerful politicians in the United States and therefore in the world, is on this tiny little island in the middle of the Pacific, gets to know this Fijian guy who works there, and says, “Hey, if you’re ever in the United States, why don’t you stop by my house?”

Now, if you hear something like that, don’t you tell yourself, “Well, he doesn’t really mean that. He doesn’t actually mean stop by my house because this is just an employee on the island”? But then the guy goes on to say, “I planned a trip. I wanted to visit family or something, so I went over and I looked him up, and I stayed with John McCain for a week.”

That actually happened. He went to the United States and took him up on his offer. I don’t know if he texted him—what did he do? Did he text him and say, “I’m in the neighborhood, can I stay at your house?” And McCain said, “Sure, come on over.” He just stayed with the McCains for however long. That’s my story. I only have one John McCain story, and this is the day to tell it. Somebody said the guy was high on kava. That’s funny because they did do kava, and they tried to get us to take some, but it was not a tasty mix.

The McCain-Clinton Drinking Contest

There’s a headline here on CNN Politics. It said something like McCain and Hillary Clinton, years ago, had a drinking contest in some Eastern European country. It’s a famous story in which they claimed they had a drinking contest doing shots of vodka. The way the story goes is that Hillary won the contest. They did four shots of vodka each and then they just sort of gave up. He didn’t really win, but they declared her the winner. It was in Estonia, somebody’s saying.

The title of the article asked what this tells you about John McCain and Hillary having a drinking contest. I thought to myself, “It tells me how happy we should be that we have a president who doesn’t drink.” That was where my mind went immediately. How great it is to have a leader who’s in charge of nuclear weapons who doesn’t drink anything. If you have a drinking contest in front of other people, you like to drink. You’re a person who likes to drink.

I’m not so sure CNN’s point was the same point I came to. Their point was that in those days, the left and the right could sit down, have a drink, and reach across the aisle. I think that was true, and that’s a good point, too. But all I heard was two leaders who drank too much. That’s the filter I put on it.

Adam Schiff on Impeachment

Do I think Cindy McCain will be appointed to the office? I don’t know how that works. I could see why they might, but I don’t know if that’s being seriously discussed. I just saw some speculation.

I noticed that Adam Schiff, who is famous for being a critic of President Trump, is saying that he doesn’t see, at this point, grounds for impeachment. Think about that. After everything that we’ve seen and been through, the biggest critic of the president came out and said he doesn’t see grounds for impeachment. Holy cow. Now, of course, everybody says, “Yet.”

Identifying Predictive Patterns

Let’s do a little pattern recognition here. The people who are anti-Trump say to themselves, “There are so many avenues where we might find out something about the president that’s bad. Surely we will.” People are saying, “Well, if it isn’t Michael Cohen, it’s going to be something that Mueller kicks up, or it’s going to be the doorman, or it’s going to be David Pecker at the National Enquirer.” But one thing they are sure about is that with all these balls in the air, there’s something that’s going to get this president. We’re going to find out something about him. It might be the IRS, it might be something. That’s one way of thinking.

Then the other way of thinking looks like this: “Are you freaking kidding me? You haven’t found anything yet?” As hard as everybody has been looking for something, the best we have is some payments to an old girlfriend, which was already baked into the election because we kind of knew. People knew what they were voting for. Nobody was really surprised by any of this stuff.

The point is this: which of those patterns is more predictive? Does the fact that there are so many avenues tell you that something will be discovered? Or do you look at it and say, “After three years of all that looking, we’ve got basically nothing—doesn’t that tell you there’s nothing there?” If you could look that hard and not find anything, that kind of tells you there’s not much there to find.

Which of those is a more predictive pattern? We don’t know. But the people who look at the pattern and say, “Therefore, I know what’s going to happen,” they haven’t been right yet. I look at it like we’re basically at scratch. What we can predict about the future of this president in terms of things that might be kicked up is probably the same as any president at this point.

On day one of Trump’s presidency, if you had said, “Do you think if people look as hard as they can for two years, they’ll find anything bad?” I would have said, “I hope not, but if you look hard enough, you could probably find something with any rich person.” Just the fact that he’s a billionaire with lots of businesses, there’s probably something there. But two years and pretty much nothing? That surprised me. I think we may be exhausting this line of attack.

Lionel, Trump, and the Q Phenomenon

There’s somebody named Lionel who has something to do with the Q phenomenon. He was photographed with the president in the Oval Office, and people say, “How could that be anything but confirmation that Q is real?”

The answer is easily. I think most of you know that I also got photographed with the president in the Oval Office. Being photographed with the president in the Oval Office is business as usual for the president. Supporters come in with groups and get their picture taken. It’s just routine. Would the president know everything about the people he is photographed with? No.

There is no part of the process of getting your picture taken with the president that involves a deep look into your past, or at least I’m not aware of one. I had my photograph taken with the president and, as far as I know, nobody did a deep dive on my politics or my personal life. I’m sure they Googled me, but maybe not. I don’t think they do a deep dive on anybody else. If he came in with a group of people and they said, “Hey, let’s get our picture taken,” there’s nothing unusual about that. He’s probably got his picture taken with lots of people who, if you look deeply into the background, you’d find at least one thing you didn’t like.

People ask me, “Why wouldn’t the president disavow Q if it’s not real?” or “Why would he be seen with a Q supporter if it’s not real?” Look at his pattern. The president’s pattern is pretty clear: he tends to be supportive of his supporters and he goes hard against his critics. The only exceptions are the racists. When asked about the racists, he disavows them. That’s the only exception I can think of. But other than white supremacists—who he disavows about once a week while people tell him he doesn’t—he just always supports his supporters and always goes hard against his critics. In other words, he’s a politician. It’s not the worst thing in the world.

Would I admit defeat if Q is real? I would admit to being amazed.

Closing Thoughts and Tiger Woods

It’s going to be a strange news period because the John McCain stuff will push everything off the page. If you’re like me, you don’t want to say anything negative about him, especially now. There’s not much to say that’s interesting because complimenting people is just no fun.

Q says there are 45,000 sealed indictments. What does that even mean? What does it mean to have 45,000 sealed indictments? About who? About what? For what? I don’t even know what that means.

The Florida shooting is not a topic I’m going to talk about for all the good reasons. I don’t talk about idiots because I don’t want the next idiot to get famous. I can say an idiot did something in Florida, and that’s all I want to say.

As for the Tiger Woods comment—well, it sounds like Tiger Woods made a comment. Let’s see if he’s in the news today. It looks like he just said he’s playing poorly. He wouldn’t slam the President of the United States? Is that it? Well, he’s just smart.

That’s all I have to say for today. Not very interesting—today is just a day to pay respects to Senator McCain and to veterans in general who he represented in his way. We’ll get back to other business at a more appropriate time. For now, I will talk to you later.