Episode 56 - New CNN Midterm Election Poll
Date: 2018-06-16 | Duration: 13:44
Topics
poll results: generic Republican vs generic Democrat Dale’s salty tears Midterms election eve
Transcript
[0:15]
I’m sorry, I just can’t wipe the happiness off my face sometimes. Oh my, oh my, there’s a new poll out on CNN. I thought I’d share with you. They’ve been polling what they call the generic election between a generic Democrat and a generic Republican. Just a few months ago, there was a 16-point gap between the voters’ preferences for a Democrat—that was way up here—versus a generic Republican. A few months before that, people had been asking me what was my prediction for how the midterms would go.
[1:15]
I said I would only commit to this prediction: that whatever people thought was going to be the outcome around January 1st of this year, the actual outcome would be surprisingly better for Republicans. Now, Republicans are still behind, but the gap has tightened from 16 points just in the last couple months to three. Toss in your usual shy Trump voters and the independents. Now, the generic battle doesn’t really tell you everything you need to know about the individual battles that really do depend on the candidates, but for those situations that were close…
[2:15]
The Republicans are still behind, but it went from here to here. But that’s not why I was laughing when you first signed on. I was trying to contain myself, and I was thinking ahead, and I was laughing when some of you got out here. What I was laughing about is election day for the midterms, and here’s why. Number one: the Democrats are depending on this to be true for them to have a good midterm—this is what they depend to be true—Republicans don’t care that much about guns. Good luck with that.
[3:18]
Number two: if Republicans smell blood in the water—which you can kind of smell it now, can’t you? Just smell that, it’s blood in the water. Would they be inclined—and I’m just going to put this out here as a suggestion, I’ll put it in the form of “imagine something.” Use your imaginations with me: it’s election evening for the midterms, and you’re a Republican or you’re backing President Trump in any case, and you’re looking for a good result. Imagine, if you will, having watched the Democrats like Charlie Brown with the football. “Well, President Trump, he’s never going to get elected. Poof.” Well, he got elected.
[4:20]
“He got elected, but he’s never gonna do anything good. North Korea: poof. Unemployment: poof. ISIS: oop.” So there’s been a whole lot of losing going on on the Democrat side, which to them is terrible. Their movie is a tragedy. I feel bad for them; I actually do feel bad for them. They’re having a tough time with this. The Republicans have had a real good laugh up to this point, but hasn’t everybody kind of sort of assumed a little bit that that was all gonna come crashing down on the midterms? Didn’t you sort of think the party might be over and then the midterms would start reversing some Trump stuff? But imagine, if you will, that it didn’t go that way. Just put yourself in the future and you’re at home.
[5:22]
You’re with your friends, you’re having a beverage, and against all projections, the Republicans have a sensational midterm. How hard are you going to be laughing? I’m not wrong. The Democrats really could win the midterms just by falling off a log. It turns out that, historically speaking, the very lowest bar is to have a good midterm election after the other team got a president. History says this was sort of a gimme for the Democrats. Even the Republicans think, “Well, yeah, the first midterm you’re always gonna lose seats.” But what if it didn’t happen?
[6:31]
Forget about policies for a moment. Forget about who you’d want to have in control of Congress. Forget about that for the moment. Just think about this one thing: how hard you would laugh if Republicans have a great midterm. Come on, you know that would be a wild party at your house, right? Maybe you have a barbecue, call some people over. Now, you could also be disappointed, but I want you to compare these two variables. Because it’s going to be close when it gets down to the line, the enthusiasm to go vote might be the difference. Which side has the better enthusiasm? Traditionally, it’s been the Democrats because they get a lot of angry energy, but compare these two motivations.
[7:31]
Roughly speaking, on election day midterms, if Republicans decide to turn out—if they can convince their friends to go, if they can make it a party—what they’re looking at is the funnest party anybody ever had. I mean, that evening to sit around with their beers and their barbecue, it would be the funnest party you ever had because I don’t know if you could stop laughing. It would just be so hilarious. That’s what the Republicans have as a prize. Now, on top of that, they get to keep all the stuff that they were afraid of losing. They’re afraid of losing the President and afraid of taxes going up, all those other things that they think they have solved. The Republicans have the fear of losing something, which is far stronger than the urge to get something.
[8:32]
This is important. Republicans are looking at losing stuff that they just got. The other side is looking at trying to get new stuff—not really defining what that is exactly, vaguely. The team that’s trying to not lose the stuff they just got is more motivated. That team also is looking at the potential for yet again another surprise victory and the best party they’ve ever had, except for an election night I suppose. Here’s what the folks on the Left have to motivate them, and I’m looking ahead now assuming this is election day: they have the chance to impeach the president that gave them the lowest unemployment rates in history for African-Americans and for most groups.
[9:36]
I think the President who may have by then denuclearized the Korean Peninsula and—maybe because it’s several months from now—a Middle East peace plan that’s halfway done. That’s what would motivate the Left: to try to stop all of those things I just mentioned by impeaching the President. Do those motivations seem like they would be similar to you? I don’t know. If the only difference at this point is what seems to be the motivation level, you just have to sort of think ahead to that day. I think the Republicans may be ready to do what I’m about to do now. You know it’s coming. It’s not coffee; it’s the tears of my enemies. Drink with me. Let’s lift a glass to the tears of our enemies, to motivation, to winning.
[10:37]
You know what’s funny is I’m not even a Republican, but this is so freaking funny. If you’re not on the left, where it’s not funny at all—believe me, it’s not funny over there—it’s just really funny. I can’t help it. I don’t want to think it’s funny, but it is. Did everybody enjoy their enemy tears? In the past, I think there’s only one thing that this Periscope could have that it doesn’t have already that would make it complete. I give you the one-man play in one act.
[11:42]
It’s a play in one act; I call it “Dale: Election Night Midterms,” and it goes a little like this: [Salty tears sounds]. Good tears. Salty. Somebody said salty. I saw that news report, and by the way, the only other thing I want to show you is this: I went to my app and I thought I’ll call it up on my phone, the CNN poll. I’d seen it on my laptop, but I wanted to hold it in front of me when I was reading it to you. I thought, well, that’s pretty big news, so it’s gonna be in here at the top, right?
[12:43]
Probably right at the top. It’s brand new, it’s big news, just came out, so it would be right at the top, right? No. No, that’s Cohen. But it’s gonna be in the top three. Big story like that, top three, top five at least, right? Let’s see… four, five… well, it’s in the top ten. I meant top 20, totally. It’s definitely gonna be in the top 20. I know it’s here because I clicked on it. Well, it’s somewhere here. Let’s just say it’s not near the top. That’s all I got for now. Go enjoy your evening, start planning your party, and have a good night.